After my post on CECL back-testing sparked a lot of good discussion, I wanted to follow up with a similar look at how institutions can approach back-testing for their ALM models. Here is a simple, practical way to think about ALM back-testing as well. ALM models are heavily assumption-driven. Prepayments, deposit betas and decay rates, reinvestment strategies, pricing assumptions, etc. Any one of these can meaningfully change the risk profile of the balance sheet. And because

The New York Fed (they are on a great roll lately with their research!) just released a really interesting piece called “Economic Capital: A Better Measure of Bank Failure?” ( https://lnkd.in/dCNeSKWf ) and I think it speaks to something many of us in risk management have been talking about for years. The researchers built a solvency metric called Economic Capital (EC) which is basically the present value of a bank’s assets minus the present value of its liabilities and opera

As I’ve mentioned in a few recent posts, even though the Fed has started lowering short rates, the longer end of the curve has remained flat and even ticked up a bit. For example, the 10-year Treasury is up about 10 basis points since the Fed lowered rates.  Despite this, mortgage rates have actually come down significantly, from around 6.9% in late May on a 30-yr fixed rate to around 6.30% in early October. What’s driving that? One big factor has been spread tightening in th

The FDIC published its quarterly banking profile for Q1 2025 yesterday. While the report looks "solid" on the surface, once you dive in a bit, the data is not as encouraging.. The banking industry turned in a “good quarter” by the numbers: Earnings up ROA at 1.16% Deposit growth continues Only one bank failed …but if you’ve spent time around balance sheets and risk models, you know that headlines can be deceiving. Earnings: up, but ..... Q1’s profit boost came mostly from non

In today’s highly regulated and data-driven financial environment, models are at the heart of decision-making, from credit underwriting...